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Ayodele, O A, Chang-Richards, A and González, V (2020) Factors Affecting Workforce Turnover in the Construction Sector: A Systematic Review. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Balali, V, Zalavadia, A and Heydarian, A (2020) Real-Time Interaction and Cost Estimating within Immersive Virtual Environments. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Bayat, M, Khanzadi, M and Nasirzadeh, F (2020) Bargaining Game Model to Determine Concessionary Items in Build-Operate-Transfer Contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Bhandari, S, Hallowell, M R, Boven, L V, Welker, K M, Golparvar-Fard, M and Gruber, J (2020) Using Augmented Virtuality to Examine How Emotions Influence Construction-Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment, and Safety Decisions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Cheng, J C P, Chen, K and Chen, W (2020) State-of-the-Art Review on Mixed Reality Applications in the AECO Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Enshassi, M S A, Walbridge, S, West, J S and Haas, C T (2020) Dynamic and Proactive Risk-Based Methodology for Managing Excessive Geometric Variability Issues in Modular Construction Projects Using Bayesian Theory. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Gao, S, Song, X and Ding, R (2020) Promoting Information Transfer in Collaborative Projects through Network Structure Adjustment. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Hong, Y, Hammad, A, Zhong, X, Wang, B and Akbarnezhad, A (2020) Comparative Modeling Approach to Capture the Differences in BIM Adoption Decision-Making Process in Australia and China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Hou, X, Zeng, Y and Xue, J (2020) Detecting Structural Components of Building Engineering Based on Deep-Learning Method. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
John, S T, Roy, B K, Sarkar, P and Davis, R (2020) IoT Enabled Real-Time Monitoring System for Early-Age Compressive Strength of Concrete. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Ma, H, Zeng, S, Lin, H and Zeng, R (2020) Impact of Public Sector on Sustainability of Public–Private Partnership Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Ma, X, Chan, A P C, Li, Y, Zhang, B and Xiong, F (2020) Critical Strategies for Enhancing BIM Implementation in AEC Projects: Perspectives from Chinese Practitioners. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Milberg, C T and Tommelein, I D (2020) Methods for Managing Tolerance Compatibility: Windows in Cast-in-Place Concrete. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Sharma, V, Caldas, C H and Mulva, S P (2020) Identification and Prioritization of Factors Affecting the Overall Project Cost of Healthcare Facilities. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Sherratt, F and Leicht, R (2020) Unpacking Ontological Perspectives in CEM Research: Everything Is Biased. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Swei, O (2020) Forecasting Infidelity: Why Current Methods for Predicting Costs Miss the Mark. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Construction; Costs; Endogeneity; Error-correction model; Forecasting; Multivariate; Time series; Univariate;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001756
- Abstract:
High-fidelity forecasts of construction cost indexes and material prices are critical for the successful delivery of infrastructure work projects. Unfortunately, existing models tend to underperform because they either (1) ignore relevant explanatory factors or (2) incorrectly specify system feedback and structure. Through a case study with bitumen, a construction material of prime concern for transportation agencies, this paper presents a novel multivariate cost forecasting approach that overcomes these two gaps. Specifically, based on several diagnostic tests, an autoregressive distributed lag and equivalent error-correction model is specified that correctly captures the feedback structure between bitumen and energy commodities. The study then characterizes the relative merits of the approach by introducing robust deterministic and probabilistic out-of-sample forecast measures. The proposed forecasting approach greatly outperforms conventional methods: 6-month-ahead price projections are at least 25% better across the available deterministic and probabilistic metrics. For state planning agencies, this improved forecasting model will allow decision makers to better predict capital budgeting requirements and resource-planning risks. Furthermore, the proposed performance measures will better equip the construction research community to evaluate future forecasting models.
Syed, A and Sonparote, R S (2020) Development and Early-Age Performance of an Innovative Prestressed Precast Concrete Pavement. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Trinh, M T and Feng, Y (2020) Impact of Project Complexity on Construction Safety Performance: Moderating Role of Resilient Safety Culture. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Zhou, M, Liu, Y, Wang, K and Fahmi Hassanein, M (2020) New Asynchronous-Pouring Rapid-Construction Method for Long-Span Prestressed Concrete Box Girder Bridges with Corrugated Steel Webs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).
Zuluaga, C M, Albert, A and Winkel, M A (2020) Improving Safety, Efficiency, and Productivity: Evaluation of Fall Protection Systems for Bridge Work Using Wearable Technology and Utility Analysis. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(02).